Data Swing from 2024/25 to 2025/26 for Arsenal and Liverpool in Key Metrics

Plus what Arsenal are doing in each phase of the games compared to Liverpool this season

Written on 06/01/2026

When Dominik Szoboszlai scored the match-winning free-kick against Arsenal in August at Anfield, the sense was that the reverse fixture, without Mohamed Salah due to AFCON, would be about consolidating a position at the top of the table, perhaps with a draw or a narrow win.

However, a great deal has changed since then, and we now find ourselves in early January with Arsenal 14 points ahead of Liverpool after Gameweek 20. The reverse fixture has arrived, with the Gunners overwhelming favourites to breeze past the Reds at the Emirates Stadium this Thursday.

At the end of Gameweek 34 last season when Liverpool smashed Tottenham Hotspur to clinch the title mathematically, they were 15 points ahead of Arsenal. Come the end of the campaign, the gap was reduced to 10 because Arne Slot’s team played the last four in party mode (which is fair enough).

How a 10-point lead in May over Arsenal has become a 14-point deficit by January for the Reds is frightening, yet not surprising, given the work both clubs did in the summer transfer market and the nature of their respective pre-seasons, shaped by external circumstances.

I wrote in October that, although Liverpool increased the overall quality of their squad, most of the signings they made were replacements for departing talent. Arsenal, on the other hand, recruited well in the summer to build on an already strong core of players. You can read that piece here, which also detailed the number of minutes the Reds lost through player departures, highlighting just how much of their spine they were forced/had to let go.

There has been a 24-point swing in Arsenal’s favour from the final Gameweek of last season to Gameweek 20 of this one. What do the underlying numbers in key metrics tell us about this shift?

Offensive metrics swing

This section will examine the underlying numbers across key attacking metrics, and the extent to which Arsenal and Liverpool have experienced positive or negative swings in those figures from last season to this one.

Non-penalty goals (NPG) refer to goals scored by any means other than penalties, including set-pieces, throw-ins, free-kicks, open play, etc.

Arsenal are not far off last season’s levels in terms of non-penalty goals. They have improved their non-penalty expected goals (xG) created and shots attempted, alongside a slight uptick in open-play shot-creating actions. There has been a minor dip in take-ons attempted, deep completions and touches in the opposition box, while passes and carries into the box have taken a more noticeable hit.

For Liverpool, aside from take-ons, which have seen only a very slight decline, every key offensive metric has dropped more substantially compared to last season. The table highlights that while Arsenal have made marginal tweaks and improvements in non-penalty chance creation without significant declines elsewhere, the Reds have suffered a marked downturn across almost all of the key metrics considered.

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