Stats Analysis: Reds’ Forward Line Continues to Progress

Written on 23/03/2024

Liverpool’s forward line has been free-scoring this season with five players going past 10 goals in all competitions. It is only the second time in eight seasons that this has happened. The Reds also became the first team in Europe to achieve the feat this season. All this despite key forward players missing a good chunk of games due to injury/unavailability. 

We saw Mohamed Salah miss almost two months of action due to a hamstring problem. Diogo Jota and physical setback go hand-in-hand it seems. Luis Diaz had a difficult time due to personal issues that affected him around the November-December period.

But, with the final stretch of the campaign coming up, it feels like they are ready to help the team go very far in the League and Europe.

Below, we analyse how the Liverpool forward line has evolved over the years with the help of numbers. Players have come and gone, so it would make sense to be more objective than subjective.

Ps - Note that I have only included forward players who have played a good chunk of games/minutes in the front line in all competitions. So, Jayden Danns, for example, won’t be part of this article. Moreover, this season, Harvey Elliott becomes the sixth forward player as he has made enough appearances in those positions (either as a sub or a starter).

While this could be a coincidence (or maybe not), the last time Liverpool won the league was in 2019/20, a season where the forward line contributed to only 53.5% of the total goals scored in all competitions (58.8% in the league), considerably less than the last three campaigns. Now, we wouldn’t be making this comment had Aston Villa held on to their two-goal lead at Manchester City on the last day of 2021/22, but there is food for thought.

After going past 70% in the last three years, the goal contribution percentage has come down to 65.8 this time around. It shows that other players have shown up with important goals in different parts of the season more than in the past. This helps in tight games where, for example, a set-piece goal from a defender or a midfielder wins you the game.

Underlying Metrics Analysis

We haven’t seen a Liverpool front line collectively underperform their xG numbers in the last five years. It shows that they are very good finishers in an elite team. The maximum they overperformed was in the 21/22 season (0.08 goals per 90 more than expected).

The struggle was real last season and in 2020/21 due to circumstances that were beyond their control. While the team was ravaged by injuries in 20/21, the 22/23 campaign felt like a write-off in some sense. Normalcy seems to have returned now.

Shot attempts being more than in the recent past could be down one person - Darwin Núñez. I don’t mind having more pops at goal, but increasing the volume of goals per shot on target could be something they can improve on collectively. The 21/22 season was a freak in this aspect. It was 1.22 shots on target that season, and 1.41 this year.  While the overall finishing has been great as the numbers suggested above, more can be made of the number of shots being attempted.

It is not even close to how important Mohamed Salah is to this team. He is on course to breach the 40 mark again in goals and assists for the season. That despite missing a couple of months of action due to an injury.