Data: Recent History, Present Form & Underlying Performance puts Manchester City in a great place for another title

Pep Guardiola's men generally get better in the second half of seasons

I was not expecting to write an article of this kind three weeks into the season, when Manchester City had lost two of their first three league games: away at Brighton and Hove Albion and at home to Tottenham Hotspur. It felt like a continuation of the transition Pep Guardiola’s team were undergoing, which was the main reason they finished third last season.

Since then, however, City have been the second most in-form team in the league after Aston Villa. Over the last 13 league games, the Manchester-based side has amassed 31 points, scoring 33 goals and conceding 12. Villa and Arsenal, over the same period, have collected 32 and 30 points respectively, with the Gunners boasting the best defensive record (conceding only nine goals in this period).

The actual league table separates the top three, consisting of Arsenal, City and Villa, by just three points. However, while Villa’s current form seems more like a hot streak than a sustained run, and I would be happy to be proven wrong if they continue to overperform their underlying numbers, Arsenal are currently leading the table and boast the strongest squad overall.

City, on the other hand, are improving and have a history of getting better in the second half of league campaigns under Guardiola. In six of the last eight seasons, they have led the league for points collected across the final 19 games of the season. Here is the table:

Even last season, when they struggled during the first half of the campaign, they managed to collect the most points in the second half and finish the season strongly.

The anomalies were the 2019/20 season, when Liverpool walked the league, and the 2021/22 season, when the Reds had to make up a seven-point gap to City and needed to be close to perfect just to get near the eventual title winners (we all know about the final-day drama of that season).

Over the last eight seasons, Arsenal have averaged 35.25 points from the final 19 league games of a campaign. Their best return during this period was 49 points, achieved in the 2023/24 season, when they were pipped to the title by City by two points. That was the only time in this period that they collected more than 40 points from their last 19 league games. Worrying!

The point I am trying to make here is that City are set to get at least 40 to 45 points from their final 19 games this season, too (unless something catastrophic happens). They are already close to Arsenal in the table. Can the Gunners match their rivals’ tally when the crunch part of the season arrives? I am still not sure considering the recent history, and the numbers back that up.

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