Data Viz Analysis: Is there anyone capable of challenging Arsenal and Man City?

The inconsistency of results from teams below the top two could mean a wild season

Written on 05/12/2025, after Gameweek 14.

It has been a wild Premier League season so far. Apart from Arsenal, and to an extent Manchester City, many teams have shown inconsistent form, including defending champions Liverpool. With 14 games played by each side (just over a third of the campaign completed), we now have a large enough sample to examine some underlying numbers and add context to how teams have performed, as well as what it might mean for the table come May 2026.

It is clear that Arsenal are the favourites to win the league. They are five points clear of second placed City who, despite some iffy defensive form, continue to rely on Erling Haaland’s goalscoring to win matches almost single-handedly. Aston Villa sit third, a point behind City, after a run of eight wins in nine following a difficult start. Liverpool are ninth, eleven points off the top, and already appear to be out of the title race.

Despite being ninth after fourteen games, the Reds are only a point behind fifth placed Crystal Palace. We also know that the Premier League will receive five places in the Champions League next season, unless English teams perform very poorly in the remainder of the European campaign.

It prompted me to bring the table below:

The gap between first and eighth has been similar in recent seasons, and at times even smaller, but the cumulative points total of the top eight is the lowest this season compared with the last five campaigns.

Is this down to a lack of quality among the teams from third to eighth? Or is it the result of tight competition in the league, where a team in 12th or 13th can beat a team in fourth or fifth? By the eye test there is certainly a quality problem.

Recent Form: A Guide

Teams can take time to settle into their rhythm and improve after about gameweek five or six. With that in mind, below is the table showing points, expected goal difference, and actual goal difference from 1st October 2025 to the present date, during which teams have played eight matches each.

Although Aston Villa are flying high at the moment, their expected goal difference (xGD) suggests they might hit a wobble soon. There is a vast difference between their xGD and actual goal difference (GD). Consequently, you can see Arsenal, City and Chelsea as other the ‘in-form’ teams, with their xGD and GD relatively close to each other.

The other big story is Liverpool being seventeenth in the form table, with their xGD indicating that they could have been around fifth or sixth in this table, not seventeenth. Maybe luck will turn for Arne Slot’s side? Or have the recent results sapped their confidence?

Of course, xGD is an overview metric and does not take into account the game states. But it is a good guide for how teams compare to where they are currently (classic example being Villa over-performing at the moment, not sustainable!).

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